Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-29 11.025779 12.634970 14.369435 16.374475 18.624868 21.069044 23.920945
2025-07-06 8.103427 10.157909 12.548576 15.522516 19.108319 23.277056 28.474001
2025-07-13 7.102358 9.421043 12.251368 15.934926 20.573750 26.190779 33.472523
2025-07-20 6.277801 8.764080 11.932213 16.224329 21.840273 28.885904 38.333292
2025-07-27 5.523680 8.070829 11.442470 16.174179 22.574765 30.854147 42.281385
2025-08-03 4.857596 7.407349 10.904363 15.974588 23.045563 32.450218 45.774139
2025-08-10 4.370785 6.932111 10.560952 15.980348 23.749003 34.342219 49.702969
2025-08-17 4.000603 6.581675 10.350315 16.134022 24.636131 36.495014 54.056328
2025-08-24 3.631673 6.191168 10.038780 16.100391 25.227627 38.235069 57.883456
2025-08-31 3.284741 5.797298 9.682600 15.960075 25.632330 39.701668 61.357918
2025-09-07 3.034362 5.531874 9.496854 16.054473 26.374521 41.670160 65.621317
2025-09-14 2.889565 5.425824 9.549584 16.515104 27.687361 44.525713 71.298142
2025-09-21 2.622736 5.091370 9.214074 16.343469 28.022185 45.952382 74.943510
2025-09-28 2.271372 4.573170 8.531274 15.552930 27.319803 45.747607 76.082960
2025-10-05 2.161765 4.480286 8.560226 15.944468 28.540737 48.574209 82.014259
2025-10-12 2.046138 4.364286 8.537768 16.241728 29.614100 51.204585 87.733974
2025-10-19 1.888530 4.151790 8.325117 16.188831 30.087301 52.879222 91.981990
2025-10-26 1.725754 3.912399 8.043318 15.990017 30.291804 54.112418 95.550088
2025-11-02 1.605084 3.745652 7.882382 15.995452 30.844155 55.933569 100.139079
2025-11-09 1.513007 3.628870 7.806380 16.149372 31.660740 58.222945 105.581467
2025-11-16 1.406719 3.471031 7.637785 16.115672 32.133090 59.938304 110.113412
2025-11-23 1.298013 3.296629 7.422130 15.975251 32.397735 61.297779 114.078883
2025-11-30 1.222524 3.188710 7.331632 16.069725 33.095849 63.431595 119.440584